Tianci Material (002709) Incident Review： Performance in line with expectations Baseline Expected Continuous Improvement
Tianci Material (002709) Incident Review: Performance in line with expectations Baseline Expected Continuous Improvement
Event: The company released the 2019Q1 performance report: It is estimated that the net profit in 2019Q1 will be 21 million to 31 million yuan, a decrease of 94.
90% to 92.
Investment points: Exclude pre-income increase in investment income9.
61%, performance is in line with expectations.
In the first quarter of 2018, the company changed the accounting method of the holder’s equity in Jiangsu Ronghui General Lithium Co., Ltd., increasing the company’s current net profit by 39.28 million yuan. After deducting the above effects, the first quarter of 2019 results in pre-increasing9.
61%, in line with expectations.
The main reasons for the growth are: 1) the coal market price has stabilized, and sales have increased significantly compared to the same period last year. We expect the company’s Q1 input in 2019 to be about 10,000 tons, and the 6,500 tons in Q1 2018 will increase by more than 50%.
2) The growth of products of daily chemical materials and specialty chemicals, and the improvement of product structure, the gross profit margin increased significantly.
Lithium salt capacity is released, and product prices are expected to continue to rise: existing companies own 1.
4 The production capacity of formaldehyde lithium hexafluorophosphate, including 4,000 tons of solid production capacity and 30,000 tons of liquid production capacity (equivalent to 10,000 tons of solids), is the largest lithium salt producer in the world.
According to the monitoring of Baichuan Information, following a rebound in February, domestic lithium hexafluorophosphate prices rose again on March 20.
The latest price has reached 11.
80,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 2 that day.
61%, with a gradual increase of 6 year-to-date.
With the implementation of the supplementary policy, we judge that the annual internal conversion of new energy vehicle sales is expected to increase (more than 1.65 million units / yoy30% +), the demand side will still have considerable growth, and the supply side is affected by factors such as costs and high-end productionIn the future, lithium salt prices are expected to continue to grow steadily.
In fact, the company’s lithium salt production capacity is climbing in 2018, with an expansion of approximately 4,200 tons. It is expected that the volume of lithium salt will reach approximately 10,000 tons in 2019 (including about 3,500 tons of Central Asahi Glass), achieving significant growth.
Rising inflation and price growth will drive performance growth: According to GGII data, the company (including its subsidiary Dongguan Kaixin) exchanged about 3 in 2018.
57 Every year, at least 2017 has increased by about 23%.
Based on the rapid growth of the industry and the endorsement of high-quality customers, we expect the company to achieve 5 higher than the above-mentioned tractor sales in 2019, which is equivalent to a 40% annual increase.
As far as carbon dioxide prices are concerned, according to GGII data, in the field of power batteries, 2016Q1 diesel has about 8 tax-containing oxides.
50,000 yuan / ton, the price fell to 3 in 2018Q1.
90,000 yuan / ton, currently rebounding to 苏州夜网论坛 about 4.
4 million / ton.
In the future, the price of lithium salts will gradually increase upstream, and fluctuating prices are expected to rise steadily, ushering in a good situation of rising volume and profit.
As far as customers are concerned, the major internal customers of the company include CATL, Lishen, Guoxuan, LG, etc. At the same time, it actively explores new customers, and its market share tends to continue to increase, further consolidating the company’s leader in the wind field.
Equity incentives and high unlocking standards demonstrate confidence: The company released the 2019 stock quote and exchange stock incentive plan on January 23, and plans to grant a total of 921 equity to incentive objects by way of targeted issuance.
970,000 shares, accounting for 2% of total equity.
72%, whose unlocking 南京龙凤网 condition is the company’s performance appraisal requirements for 2019?
The net profit after deduction of non-incentive costs in 2021 shall not be less than 2.
5 megabits, a significant improvement over the 2018 performance.
This equity incentive plan has higher requirements for unlocking, which shows the franchise’s confidence in the company’s rapid growth in future performance.
Maintain “overweight” rating: The company’s net profit for 2019 and 2020 is expected to be 2 respectively.
150,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.
52 yuan, corresponding estimates are 37, 21 times.
As the company’s core products are in a good situation of rising volume and price, the company’s “overweight” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: policy risks; customer expansion exceeds expectations; product prices exceed expectations; production expansion progress exceeds expectations.